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75 : The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections and, as a result, on the power balance between publish- ers and distributors), and on copyright. Throughout history, books, and the content con- tained in and disseminated through books, has been a scarce and also well guarded resource of knowledge and entertainment. This will change drastically and most likely rapidly, as books get embedded in the global ows of digital content, easy and a ordable to access, any- where, at any time.

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75 : The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections and, as a result, on the power balance between publish- ers and distributors), and on copyright. Throughout history, books, and the content con- tained in and disseminated through books, has been a scarce and also well guarded resource of knowledge and entertainment. This will change drastically and most likely rapidly, as books get embedded in the global ows of digital content, easy and a ordable to access, any- where, at any time.

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76 : The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections Q GeMS Stefano Mauri Q Edigita Renato Salvetti Q Gallimard Eric Marbeau Q Editis Virginie Clayssen Q Nielsen Book Scan Jonathan Nowell Q Shanda Lisa Liping Zhang Q Penguin China Jo Lusby Q PA Mandy Knight Q IPA Jens Bammel Q Denis Kotov (Russia) Q Book Union (Russia) Alexandra Shipetina Q Cora Stephan Q Empik Poland Magdalena Zając Q Uebereuter Andrea Braunsdorfer Acknowledgments O’Reilly Media wishes to thank the following organiza- tions and individuals for their contributions to this report: Q Hauptverband des österreichischen Buchhandels Inge Kralupper Q Chinese Academy of Press and Publication Jiang Xiaojuan Q Libri.de Dr. Fabian Niebling Q Libreka Ronald Schild Q The Bookseller, Philip Jones Q Bookwire.de Jens Klingelhöfer Q Publishers Weekly Jim Milliott Q Mladinska Kniga & University of Ljubljana Miha Kovac Q Spanish Publishers Association Antonio Maria Avila Q Planeta Patricio Tixis and Jesus Badenes Q BogMarketed Denmark Bjarke Larsen Q SNE (French syndicate) Jacqueline Tiolentino and Arnaud Lavalette

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76 : The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections Q GeMS Stefano Mauri Q Edigita Renato Salvetti Q Gallimard Eric Marbeau Q Editis Virginie Clayssen Q Nielsen Book Scan Jonathan Nowell Q Shanda Lisa Liping Zhang Q Penguin China Jo Lusby Q PA Mandy Knight Q IPA Jens Bammel Q Denis Kotov (Russia) Q Book Union (Russia) Alexandra Shipetina Q Cora Stephan Q Empik Poland Magdalena Zając Q Uebereuter Andrea Braunsdorfer Acknowledgments O’Reilly Media wishes to thank the following organiza- tions and individuals for their contributions to this report: Q Hauptverband des österreichischen Buchhandels Inge Kralupper Q Chinese Academy of Press and Publication Jiang Xiaojuan Q Libri.de Dr. Fabian Niebling Q Libreka Ronald Schild Q The Bookseller, Philip Jones Q Bookwire.de Jens Klingelhöfer Q Publishers Weekly Jim Milliott Q Mladinska Kniga & University of Ljubljana Miha Kovac Q Spanish Publishers Association Antonio Maria Avila Q Planeta Patricio Tixis and Jesus Badenes Q BogMarketed Denmark Bjarke Larsen Q SNE (French syndicate) Jacqueline Tiolentino and Arnaud Lavalette

74 : The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections separate course, with the predominance of online read- ing and writing platforms dominated by one company, Cloudary (formerly branded Shanda), while ebooks hardly play a role so far. But digital content, in the broader sense, is pushed heavily by the government as a key industry for the country’s future. In Brazil—and in a number of other emerging mar- kets—the government is betting on digital education, designing and funding respective programs, which may quickly become a model—together with similar e orts notably in Korea—for other countries with a growing income, exploding mobile access to the Internet and a population downloading loads of content as a result. Piracy is considered by many as one of the toughest bumps on the road ahead, literally threatening the emerging digital markets. Within Russia, according to o cial estimates, 90 percent of ebooks are illegal, and publishers as well as retailers in the Arab World, seeing their business on a threshold between all the brilliant opportunities and failure, as revenues dry up against the prevailing illegal availablility of content. At least two further variables will de ne the evolution in the next six to twelve months signi cantly: A good handfull of global players with extremely deep pockets—Amazon, Apple, Barnes & Noble, Google, and Kobo (with funds from Japanese Rakuten)—plus eventually by a few more following suit, like Sony, but perhaps also new entrants from India, are about to redraw the world map of books, publishing, reading, and learning. For the rst time in history, a web of digital ows emerges, which is truly spanning the planet, and where books can occupy a central position. It will be very exciting to watch how these ambitions and growth perspectives will work out, and how local players will nd their place in such a radically new setting. The other factor framing the ebook trajectory will come from governments, notably in the US and in the European Union, as they have stepped into the arena, to have their say on central business practices (and notably competition issues, which are de ning pricing strategies Outlook and Projections By late 2012, ebooks start to show a signi cant presence in markets outside of the English language realm, nota- bly in Europe, with Germany clearly in the lead of this development. Reports and anecdotal evidence have shown a strong increase in the penetration of digital reading devices—ereaders and tablets combined—all across Europe by the end of 2011, with a subsequent surge in ebook purchases in January. Devices continue to be the main drivers, and for autumn 2012, all major players who are competing on the European turf have launched or announced scores of new devices, at much lower prices than before. 800,000 ereading devices are expected to be sold in 2012 until the end of the year, as compared to 232,000 in 2011 (estimate by Bitkom, in buchreport, October 5, 2012. As ebook downloads have not declined drastically after the high levels of January, and even with sensible growth reported for countries like Italy, Spain, and Scandinavia, a strong upswing at the yearend can be expected. For Germany at least, the winter of 2012/2013 may even turn out to be a tipping point in the spread of digital reading, so that projections of a market share for ebooks by 2015 of around 15 percent seem realistic. Other countries, like those highlighted above, may be closer to 10 or 12 percent by then. France is more di - cult to position in this context, as no solid numbers are available for developments in the rst half of 2012, and statements from publishers are extremely cautious. It therefore needs to be seen if such perceptions re ect really a speci cally high level of skepticism among cus- tomers, or rather an overly downplaying attitude on the side of the industry. We shall see in December 2012 and January 2013. Perspectives get much more complex, and diverse, when it comes to markets beyond North America and the European Union. While according to Bowker’s consumer surveys, India is likely to be at the very forefront in any global compari- son on digital reading, China has entered on a largely

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74 : The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections separate course, with the predominance of online read- ing and writing platforms dominated by one company, Cloudary (formerly branded Shanda), while ebooks hardly play a role so far. But digital content, in the broader sense, is pushed heavily by the government as a key industry for the country’s future. In Brazil—and in a number of other emerging mar- kets—the government is betting on digital education, designing and funding respective programs, which may quickly become a model—together with similar e orts notably in Korea—for other countries with a growing income, exploding mobile access to the Internet and a population downloading loads of content as a result. Piracy is considered by many as one of the toughest bumps on the road ahead, literally threatening the emerging digital markets. Within Russia, according to o cial estimates, 90 percent of ebooks are illegal, and publishers as well as retailers in the Arab World, seeing their business on a threshold between all the brilliant opportunities and failure, as revenues dry up against the prevailing illegal availablility of content. At least two further variables will de ne the evolution in the next six to twelve months signi cantly: A good handfull of global players with extremely deep pockets—Amazon, Apple, Barnes & Noble, Google, and Kobo (with funds from Japanese Rakuten)—plus eventually by a few more following suit, like Sony, but perhaps also new entrants from India, are about to redraw the world map of books, publishing, reading, and learning. For the rst time in history, a web of digital ows emerges, which is truly spanning the planet, and where books can occupy a central position. It will be very exciting to watch how these ambitions and growth perspectives will work out, and how local players will nd their place in such a radically new setting. The other factor framing the ebook trajectory will come from governments, notably in the US and in the European Union, as they have stepped into the arena, to have their say on central business practices (and notably competition issues, which are de ning pricing strategies Outlook and Projections By late 2012, ebooks start to show a signi cant presence in markets outside of the English language realm, nota- bly in Europe, with Germany clearly in the lead of this development. Reports and anecdotal evidence have shown a strong increase in the penetration of digital reading devices—ereaders and tablets combined—all across Europe by the end of 2011, with a subsequent surge in ebook purchases in January. Devices continue to be the main drivers, and for autumn 2012, all major players who are competing on the European turf have launched or announced scores of new devices, at much lower prices than before. 800,000 ereading devices are expected to be sold in 2012 until the end of the year, as compared to 232,000 in 2011 (estimate by Bitkom, in buchreport, October 5, 2012. As ebook downloads have not declined drastically after the high levels of January, and even with sensible growth reported for countries like Italy, Spain, and Scandinavia, a strong upswing at the yearend can be expected. For Germany at least, the winter of 2012/2013 may even turn out to be a tipping point in the spread of digital reading, so that projections of a market share for ebooks by 2015 of around 15 percent seem realistic. Other countries, like those highlighted above, may be closer to 10 or 12 percent by then. France is more di - cult to position in this context, as no solid numbers are available for developments in the rst half of 2012, and statements from publishers are extremely cautious. It therefore needs to be seen if such perceptions re ect really a speci cally high level of skepticism among cus- tomers, or rather an overly downplaying attitude on the side of the industry. We shall see in December 2012 and January 2013. Perspectives get much more complex, and diverse, when it comes to markets beyond North America and the European Union. While according to Bowker’s consumer surveys, India is likely to be at the very forefront in any global compari- son on digital reading, China has entered on a largely

Page 6English-Language and Other eBook Markets click to expand contents

Page 14Market Close-ups click to expand contents

Page 53Key Drivers and Debates click to expand contents

Page 66eBook Piracy in Europe: The Example and Debate in Germany, and Related Findings click to expand contents

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